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Euro crisis impact smaller than predicted


Linda Genborg 2012-03-23

The initial worry has passed. The Euro crisis did not affect the export dependent business sector in West Sweden as bad as was first feared, according to a new report from Svenskt Näringsliv.

There was a down-turn in both production and employment in the end of 2011 and the start of 2012, but it has since levelled out and optimism is returning. At least according to Svenskt Näringsliv's survey and company panel, which includes 1,100 West Swedish companies.

The prognosis is still that the GDP growth of the country will be close to zero during all of 2012, and employment will decline. However, the prognosis for 2013 is slightly brighter.
 
Last autumn Svenskt Näringsliv warned of a wave of inflation caused by the debt crisis in Europe and warned that the Euro collaboration was hanging on a thread. This would be a big blow to Swedish export.

The problems are still there; the debt crisis in southern Europe, the prices of oil and other raw materials have soared and the central banks in the US and within EMU have printed a lot of money in order to maintain growth. But things have not turned as bad as predicted.

"I miscalculated the European politicians' and the ECB's power to act last autumn. But they have pumped out money because they didn't dare anything else," says analyst Göran Grahn at Svenskt Näringsliv, to Göteborgs-Posten (GP).

That the initial worry has passed can also be seen among the west Swedish companies. They are slightly more positive than the national average, and believe in increased employment.

"The crisis indications last autumn never materialized in any form of staff cut-backs. Some sectors of the business life have had less to do, but it never affected the employment," says Kenneth Krantz, regional manager at Svenskt Näringsliv, to GP.

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